Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
