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The direst projected effects of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by researchers, including a searing 4C rise in mean temperatures to a two-metre surge in ocean levels. A separate possibility predicts a decline of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt food production and energy needs.

Plausible Outcomes, Not Guarantees

These effects, a number of which are connected to critical climate thresholds, are considered as improbable but plausible. The team explained that these projections plugged a hole in forecasting that had rendered the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The worst-case scenarios we have outlined should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," stated the professor who oversaw the study. "The UK has been formulating policy lacking the frameworks to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to plan for future conditions they wish to avoid, but must not overlook."

A Range of Harsh Climate Possibilities

A second set of severe models maps the possible scale of extreme weather between now and the year 2100. These show that temperatures could soar in some months by up to 6C above the norm, while rainfall could be triple standard measurements.

The probability of the catastrophic events coming to pass could not be calculated due to a lack of certainty about what steps will be taken to tackle global heating and how the climate system will behave. This approach was described as similar to security threat evaluations or stress tests for the banking sector.

Critical Possibility Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Global temperatures rising well above 4C by 2100 could transpire if international cooperation breaks down or if strong feedback loops like the Amazon rainforest dying emit its vast reserves of carbon. This would cause intense and enduring heat domes and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and becoming unstable due to global heating. A complete failure commencing by 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Farming would be severely challenged and freshwater availability would be fundamentally reshaped," noted the professor.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if ice sheets in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, inundating low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by planners.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This unexpected result occurs because aerosol particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter sunlight from warming the ground.

Planning for the Unthinkable

The severe models could be used to inform the construction of major projects, for example expanded cities, nuclear power stations and water management networks. Awareness of these climate risks could also accelerate the drive to slash fossil fuel emissions.

The research formulated the severe projections using a blend of past data and records, computer simulations and climate physics. These outcomes do not take into account potential global problems like the global food shortages and resource wars.

This work was initiated as part of a national climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have stated that not enough attention was being paid to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

Official experts has said that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the dangers for four degrees. Earlier government strategies have been described as being "inadequate" by environmental groups.

An official statement commented: "Global warming is at the core of our national priorities, both building resilience and establishing itself as a low-carbon economy. It is essential that the UK is ready for the consequences."