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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.